The Fractured-Land Hypothesis

Abstract Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that “fractured land” was responsible China’s tendency toward political unification and Europe’s protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms topographical features the location productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge effects fractured on Eurasia. find topography alone is sufficient but not necessary explain polycentrism Europe China. Differences productivity, particular existence core region high productivity northern China, deliver same result. discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess robust findings are, analyze differences between theory data Africa Americas.